Saturday 31 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hull City
27Index19Attack41Defense
DLDDW
48%HUL WIN
2–1
Likeliest HUL win · 10%
Ipswich Town
14Index25Attack8Defense
WLWLL
HULL 48%DRAW 26%IPSWICH 26%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.2
Why
- Ipswich Town attack index 25 meets Hull City defense index 41 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 48% vs 26% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Hull — projected scorers
Ipswich — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
HUL or draw74%
Draw or IPS52%
HUL or IPSno draw74%
Draw no bet
HULstake returned on a draw65%
IPS35%
Clean sheets
HUL clean sheet29%
IPS clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HUL↓ IPS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HUL goals, columns IPS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.