Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hull City
38Index17Attack67Defense
LDDWW
38%BRE WIN
1–2
Likeliest BRE win · 9%
Brentford
57Index67Attack43Defense
DWDDD
HULL 33%DRAW 29%BRENTFORD 38%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 33% vs 38% — closer than the table suggests.
Hull — projected scorers
Brentford — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
HUL or draw62%
Draw or BRE67%
HUL or BREno draw71%
Draw no bet
HULstake returned on a draw46%
BRE54%
Clean sheets
HUL clean sheet25%
BRE clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HUL↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HUL goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-11) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.