Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✗ missed — the FUL win we priced at 35% · RPS 0.291
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Fulham

45Index41Attack50Defense
WDLLW
39%NEW WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Newcastle United

57Index63Attack49Defense
LWDWL
FULHAM 35%DRAW 26%NEWCASTLE 39%
FT 2–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.291). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.6
Fulham — projected scorers
Harry Wilson15%20% astAST
Timothy Castagne7%22% ast—
Rodrigo Muniz22%7% ast—
Emile Smith-Rowe15%6% ast—
Samuel Chukwueze11%9% ast—
Sasa Lukic5%14% ast—
Newcastle — projected scorers
William Osula40%7% ast—
Sandro Tonali2%21% ast—
Harvey Barnes14%9% ast—
Sven Botman5%14% ast—
Joe Willock3%15% ast—
Nick Woltemade4%14% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.