Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 5)
Fulham
36Index36Attack42Defense
LLWDL
39%FUL WIN
2–1
Likeliest FUL win · 9%
Crystal Palace
46Index53Attack39Defense
LLLDL
FULHAM 39%DRAW 26%CRYSTAL PALACE 35%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.5
Why
- Crystal Palace have 2 extra days of rest.
- The model makes this 39% vs 35% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 12 league meetings since 2018/19
FUL 25 drawn5 CRY
2025/26CRY1–1FUL2026-01-01
2025/26FUL1–2CRY2025-12-07
2024/25FUL0–2CRY2025-02-22
2024/25CRY0–2FUL2024-11-09
2023/24FUL1–1CRY2024-04-27
Fulham — projected scorers
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
FUL or draw65%
Draw or CRY61%
FUL or CRYno draw74%
Draw no bet
FULstake returned on a draw53%
CRY47%
Clean sheets
FUL clean sheet23%
CRY clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FUL↓ CRY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FUL goals, columns CRY. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 5 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29FUL 38.7% (−0.5 since first)draw 26.4%CRY 34.9%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.