Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–3✗ missed — the CRY win we priced at 35% · RPS 0.288
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Fulham

35Index33Attack40Defense
LDDLL
39%FUL WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Crystal Palace

39Index53Attack27Defense
WDLWL
FULHAM 39%DRAW 26%CRYSTAL PALACE 35%
FT 2–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.288). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.5
Head to head · 12 league meetings since 2018/19
FUL 25 drawn5 CRY
2025/26CRY1–1FUL2026-01-01
2025/26FUL1–2CRY2025-12-07
2024/25FUL0–2CRY2025-02-22
2024/25CRY0–2FUL2024-11-09
2023/24FUL1–1CRY2024-04-27
Fulham — projected scorers
Timothy Castagne8%23% ast—
Rodrigo Muniz22%7% ast—
Joshua King18%11% astGOAL
Oscar Bobb7%16% ast—
Antonee Robinson15%6% ast—
Harry Wilson7%12% ast—
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Adam Wharton2%34% ast—
Jean-Philippe Mateta32%3% ast—
Tyrick Mitchell9%24% astGOAL
Daichi Kamada3%22% astAST
Ismaila Sarr18%3% ast—
Daniel Muñoz9%12% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.