Sunday 6 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.144
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Everton

44Index38Attack52Defense
DWDDD
45%MUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Manchester United

64Index69Attack57Defense
DDLDW
EVERTON 29%DRAW 26%MAN UNITED 45%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.144). Graded 2026-09-06 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.7
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
EVE 47 drawn13 MUN
2025/26EVE0–1MUN2026-02-23
2025/26MUN0–1EVE2025-11-24
2024/25EVE2–2MUN2025-02-22
2024/25MUN4–0EVE2024-12-01
2023/24MUN2–0EVE2024-03-09
Everton — projected scorers
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall14%27% ast—
Thierno Barry34%4% ast—
Iliman Ndiaye17%17% ast—
Tyrique George5%24% astGOAL
Beto22%4% ast—
James Tarkowski8%9% ast—
Man United — projected scorers
Bruno Fernandes32%51% ast—
Bryan Mbeumo40%16% astGOAL
Matheus Cunha13%20% ast—
Patrick Dorgu16%8% ast—
Harry Maguire3%12% ast—
Kobbie Mainoo4%7% astAST

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.