Sunday 6 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 7)
Everton
38Index36Attack45Defense
DWLLD
45%MUN WIN
1–2
Likeliest MUN win · 9%
Manchester United
67Index72Attack54Defense
WLWWD
EVERTON 30%DRAW 26%MAN UNITED 45%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.7
Why
- Manchester United attack index 72 meets Everton defense index 45 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 30% vs 45% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
EVE 47 drawn13 MUN
2025/26EVE0–1MUN2026-02-23
2025/26MUN0–1EVE2025-11-24
2024/25EVE2–2MUN2025-02-22
2024/25MUN4–0EVE2024-12-01
2023/24MUN2–0EVE2024-03-09
Everton — projected scorers
Man United — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
EVE or draw55%
Draw or MUN70%
EVE or MUNno draw74%
Draw no bet
EVEstake returned on a draw40%
MUN60%
Clean sheets
EVE clean sheet18%
MUN clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| EVE↓ MUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are EVE goals, columns MUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 7 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24EVE 29.7% (+0.3 since first)draw 25.7%MUN 44.6%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.