Saturday 17 Oct, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Everton
41Index35Attack52Defense
WDDDW
37%EVE WIN
2–1
Likeliest EVE win · 8%
Chelsea
54Index64Attack41Defense
LDLWW
EVERTON 37%DRAW 27%CHELSEA 36%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 37% vs 36% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
EVE 76 drawn11 CHE
2025/26EVE3–0CHE2026-03-21
2025/26CHE2–0EVE2025-12-13
2024/25CHE1–0EVE2025-04-26
2024/25EVE0–0CHE2024-12-22
2023/24CHE6–0EVE2024-04-15
Everton — projected scorers
Chelsea — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
EVE or draw64%
Draw or CHE63%
EVE or CHEno draw73%
Draw no bet
EVEstake returned on a draw51%
CHE50%
Clean sheets
EVE clean sheet22%
CHE clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| EVE↓ CHE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are EVE goals, columns CHE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-03) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.