Monday 12 Oct, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Coventry City
18Index8Attack41Defense
WLLLL
41%NEW WIN
1–2
Likeliest NEW win · 9%
Newcastle United
43Index52Attack35Defense
WLDWD
COVENTRY 31%DRAW 28%NEWCASTLE 41%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 31% vs 41% — closer than the table suggests.
Coventry — projected scorers
Newcastle — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
COV or draw59%
Draw or NEW69%
COV or NEWno draw72%
Draw no bet
COVstake returned on a draw43%
NEW57%
Clean sheets
COV clean sheet23%
NEW clean sheet29%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| COV↓ NEW→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are COV goals, columns NEW. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-28) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.