Sunday 13 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–5✗ missed — the BHA win we priced at 33% · RPS 0.291
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Coventry City

24Index15Attack37Defense
WWLLL
36%COV WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Brighton & Hove Albion

70Index67Attack69Defense
WWWDL
COVENTRY 36%DRAW 31%BRIGHTON 33%
FT 0–5 — the model missed (RPS 0.291). Graded 2026-09-13 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Both teams score
52%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.2
Coventry — projected scorers
Jack Rudoni32%15% ast—
Taiwo Awoniyi39%4% ast—
Bobby Thomas6%34% ast—
Loum Tchaouna5%11% ast—
Ellis Simms12%1% ast—
Milan van Ewijk0%8% ast—
Brighton — projected scorers
Maxim De Cuyper13%26% astAST
Pascal Groß9%18% astGOAL
Jack Hinshelwood15%3% ast—
Georginio Rutter3%14% ast—
Diego Gómez8%8% ast—
Charalampos Kostoulas8%7% astGOAL

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.