Sunday 13 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 3)
Coventry City
33Index3Attack73Defense
LL
55%BHA WIN
1–2
Likeliest BHA win · 10%
Brighton & Hove Albion
61Index56Attack61Defense
LWLLW
COVENTRY 20%DRAW 25%BRIGHTON 55%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.1 · 1.9
Why
- Brighton & Hove Albion attack index 56 meets Coventry City defense index 73 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 20% vs 55% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Brighton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
COV or draw45%
Draw or BHA80%
COV or BHAno draw75%
Draw no bet
COVstake returned on a draw27%
BHA73%
Clean sheets
COV clean sheet16%
BHA clean sheet35%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| COV↓ BHA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are COV goals, columns BHA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 3 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24COV 20.2% (+0.8 since first)draw 24.6%BHA 55.2%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Coventry — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.