Saturday 24 Oct, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Chelsea
54Index64Attack41Defense
LDLWW
55%CHE WIN
2–1
Likeliest CHE win · 10%
Tottenham Hotspur
30Index26Attack40Defense
LDDLL
CHELSEA 55%DRAW 24%SPURS 21%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.2
Why
- Chelsea attack index 64 meets Tottenham Hotspur defense index 40 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 55% vs 21% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
CHE 154 drawn5 TOT
2025/26CHE2–1TOT2026-05-19
2025/26TOT0–1CHE2025-11-01
2024/25CHE1–0TOT2025-04-03
2024/25TOT3–4CHE2024-12-08
2023/24CHE2–0TOT2024-05-02
Chelsea — projected scorers
Spurs — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
CHE or draw79%
Draw or TOT45%
CHE or TOTno draw76%
Draw no bet
CHEstake returned on a draw72%
TOT28%
Clean sheets
CHE clean sheet31%
TOT clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CHE↓ TOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CHE goals, columns TOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-10) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.