Saturday 31 Oct, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Chelsea
54Index64Attack44Defense
WLDLW
39%CHE WIN
2–1
Likeliest CHE win · 8%
Manchester United
64Index69Attack57Defense
DDLDW
CHELSEA 39%DRAW 25%MAN UNITED 37%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.7
Why
- Manchester United attack index 69 meets Chelsea defense index 44 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 39% vs 37% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
CHE 511 drawn8 MUN
2025/26CHE0–1MUN2026-04-18
2025/26MUN2–1CHE2025-09-20
2024/25CHE1–0MUN2025-05-16
2024/25MUN1–1CHE2024-11-03
2023/24CHE4–3MUN2024-04-04
Chelsea — projected scorers
Man United — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
CHE or draw63%
Draw or MUN61%
CHE or MUNno draw75%
Draw no bet
CHEstake returned on a draw51%
MUN49%
Clean sheets
CHE clean sheet19%
MUN clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CHE↓ MUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CHE goals, columns MUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.