Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.177
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Chelsea

54Index64Attack44Defense
WLDLW
57%CHE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Hull City

27Index19Attack41Defense
DLDDW
CHELSEA 57%DRAW 26%HULL 17%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.177). Graded 2026-09-12 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
1.7 · 0.8
Head to head · 4 league meetings since 2014/15
CHE 40 drawn0 HUL
2016/17CHE2–0HUL2017-01-22
2016/17HUL0–2CHE2016-10-01
2014/15HUL2–3CHE2015-03-22
2014/15CHE2–0HUL2014-12-13
Chelsea — projected scorers
Cole Palmer32%18% astAST
João Pedro25%9% astGOAL
Romeo Lavia14%9% ast—
Enzo Fernández6%14% ast—
Morgan Rogers6%11% astGOAL
Malo Gusto1%12% ast—
Hull — projected scorers
Oliver McBurnie20%20% astAST
Regan Slater1%22% ast—
Semi Ajayi18%0% ast—
Ryan John Giles1%17% astAST
Mohamed Belloumi4%12% astGOAL
Nobel Mendy14%0% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.