Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 29% · RPS 0.125
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Burnley

11Index13Attack13Defense
DLDLL
37%BUR WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Wolverhampton Wanderers

23Index18Attack32Defense
DDLDL
BURNLEY 37%DRAW 29%WOLVES 34%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.125). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.2
Burnley — projected scorers
Zian Flemming42%5% astGOAL
Jaidon Anthony24%27% ast—
Loum Tchaouna6%12% astAST
James Ward-Prowse1%14% ast—
Quilindschy Hartman2%8% ast—
Hannibal Mejbri2%8% ast—
Wolves — projected scorers
Adam Armstrong21%11% astGOAL
Tolu Arokodare23%5% ast—
Mateus Mané6%21% ast—
Hugo Bueno2%20% ast—
Rodrigo Gomes17%0% ast—
João Gomes7%9% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.