Saturday 31 Oct, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Aston Villa
44Index46Attack43Defense
DWLDL
46%AVL WIN
2–1
Likeliest AVL win · 9%
Fulham
35Index33Attack40Defense
LDDLL
ASTON VILLA 46%DRAW 26%FULHAM 28%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.3
Why
- The model makes this 46% vs 28% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2020/21
AVL 80 drawn2 FUL
2025/26FUL1–0AVL2026-04-25
2025/26AVL3–1FUL2025-09-28
2024/25AVL1–0FUL2025-05-03
2024/25FUL1–3AVL2024-10-19
2023/24FUL1–2AVL2024-02-17
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Fulham — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
AVL or draw72%
Draw or FUL54%
AVL or FULno draw74%
Draw no bet
AVLstake returned on a draw62%
FUL38%
Clean sheets
AVL clean sheet27%
FUL clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AVL↓ FUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AVL goals, columns FUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.