Saturday 24 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
LWWWW
66%ARS WIN
2–0
Likeliest ARS win · 13%
Everton
41Index35Attack52Defense
WDDDW
ARSENAL 66%DRAW 22%EVERTON 12%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
2.0 · 0.8
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Everton defense index 52 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 66% vs 12% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
ARS 144 drawn6 EVE
2025/26ARS2–0EVE2026-03-14
2025/26EVE0–1ARS2025-12-20
2024/25EVE1–1ARS2025-04-05
2024/25ARS0–0EVE2024-12-14
2023/24ARS2–1EVE2024-05-19
Arsenal — projected scorers
Everton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
ARS or draw88%
Draw or EVE34%
ARS or EVEno draw78%
Draw no bet
ARSstake returned on a draw84%
EVE16%
Clean sheets
ARS clean sheet46%
EVE clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ARS↓ EVE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ARS goals, columns EVE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-10) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.