Methodology

Everything on xGboard is computed by our own open pipeline from public shot and fixture data — nothing licensed, nothing black-box. The team model is a time-decayed Dixon-Coles fitted on xG-adjusted goals; player projections are share-of-attack Poisson probabilities; the xG Index is a position-relative percentile blend.

The full method — formulas, the 12-season validation report, the ablation table of ideas we tested and rejected, and the live self-grading track record — lives on the model page:

→ /model: validation, formulas, and the permanent prediction record

Sources: understat.com (shot xG), football-data.org (fixtures/standings). Independent site; not affiliated with the Premier League. Corrections: quantafiai@gmail.com.