Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–0✗ missed — the WHU win we priced at 31% · RPS 0.324
The claim — frozen at kickoff

West Ham United

38Index40Attack36Defense
WLLLW
42%LEE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Leeds United

55Index56Attack53Defense
LWDWD
WEST HAM 31%DRAW 27%LEEDS 42%
FT 3–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.324). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.6
West Ham — projected scorers
Jarrod Bowen8%41% astGOAL
Valentín Castellanos29%5% astGOAL
Crysencio Summerville15%19% astAST
Konstantinos Mavropanos20%6% ast—
El Hadji Malick Diouf2%16% ast—
Tomas Soucek14%2% ast—
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin47%1% ast—
Brenden Aaronson8%22% ast—
Ao Tanaka12%8% ast—
Noah Okafor10%10% ast—
James Justin13%5% ast—
Jayden Bogle1%15% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.