Sunday 23 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–2✗ missed — the win we priced at 28% · RPS 0.323
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Venezia
IndexAttackDefense
37%DRAW
0–0
Most likely score
Lecce
IndexAttackDefense
VENEZIA 35%DRAW 37%LECCE 28%
FT 0–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.323). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Both teams score
42%
Expected goals
1.0 · 0.9
Venezia — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Lecce — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Venezia and Lecce — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.