Tuesday 25 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✗ missed — the win we priced at 32% · RPS 0.313
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Valencia

IndexAttackDefense
40% WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Real-Betis

IndexAttackDefense
VALENCIA 40%DRAW 28%REAL-BETIS 32%
FT 0–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.313). Graded 2026-08-25 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.2
Valencia — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Real-Betis — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Valencia and Real-Betis — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.