Saturday 22 Aug, 18:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.150
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Valencia
IndexAttackDefense
48% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Celta-Vigo
IndexAttackDefense
VALENCIA 48%DRAW 26%CELTA-VIGO 26%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.150). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.2
Valencia — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Celta-Vigo — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Valencia and Celta-Vigo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.