Saturday 29 Aug, 14:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–3✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.137
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Union-Berlin
IndexAttackDefense
38% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Eintracht-Frankfurt
IndexAttackDefense
UNION-BERLIN 38%DRAW 26%EINTRACHT-FRANKFURT 36%
FT 3–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.137). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.4
Union-Berlin — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Eintracht-Frankfurt — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Union-Berlin and Eintracht-Frankfurt — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.