Saturday 12 Sept, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Tottenham Hotspur
32Index31Attack41Defense
LLWLD
40%TOT WIN
1–0
Likeliest TOT win · 9%
Everton
38Index36Attack45Defense
DWLLD
SPURS 40%DRAW 28%EVERTON 32%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.3
Why
- The model makes this 40% vs 32% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 139 drawn2 EVE
2025/26TOT1–0EVE2026-05-24
2025/26EVE0–3TOT2025-10-26
2024/25EVE3–2TOT2025-01-19
2024/25TOT4–0EVE2024-08-24
2023/24EVE2–2TOT2024-02-03
Spurs — projected scorers
Everton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
TOT or draw68%
Draw or EVE60%
TOT or EVEno draw72%
Draw no bet
TOTstake returned on a draw55%
EVE45%
Clean sheets
TOT clean sheet29%
EVE clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOT↓ EVE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOT goals, columns EVE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29TOT 39.5% (−0.8 since first)draw 28.3%EVE 32.1%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.