Saturday 12 Sept, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 29% · RPS 0.126
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Tottenham Hotspur

35Index26Attack48Defense
DLDDL
39%TOT WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Everton

44Index38Attack52Defense
DWDDD
SPURS 39%DRAW 29%EVERTON 32%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.126). Graded 2026-09-12 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.2
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 139 drawn2 EVE
2025/26TOT1–0EVE2026-05-24
2025/26EVE0–3TOT2025-10-26
2024/25EVE3–2TOT2025-01-19
2024/25TOT4–0EVE2024-08-24
2023/24EVE2–2TOT2024-02-03
Spurs — projected scorers
Mathys Tel12%28% ast—
Richarlison18%10% ast—
Pedro Porro9%15% ast—
Conor Gallagher5%5% ast—
Micky van de Ven7%1% ast—
Mateus Fernandes0%6% ast—
Everton — projected scorers
Thierno Barry34%4% ast—
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall13%25% ast—
Tyrique George5%24% ast—
Iliman Ndiaye11%12% ast—
James Tarkowski7%8% ast—
Beto10%1% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.