Monday 19 Oct, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Tottenham Hotspur
30Index26Attack40Defense
LDDLL
45%TOT WIN
1–0
Likeliest TOT win · 11%
Coventry City
18Index8Attack41Defense
WLLLL
SPURS 45%DRAW 30%COVENTRY 26%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
49%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.0
Why
- Tottenham Hotspur attack index 26 meets Coventry City defense index 41 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 45% vs 26% — closer than the table suggests.
Spurs — projected scorers
Coventry — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
TOT or draw74%
Draw or COV55%
TOT or COVno draw70%
Draw no bet
TOTstake returned on a draw64%
COV36%
Clean sheets
TOT clean sheet37%
COV clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOT↓ COV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOT goals, columns COV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-05) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.