Saturday 19 Sept, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Tottenham Hotspur
34Index32Attack42Defense
DLLWL
36%TOT WIN
2–1
Likeliest TOT win · 8%
Aston Villa
46Index49Attack44Defense
DLLWW
SPURS 36%DRAW 28%ASTON VILLA 36%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 36% vs 36% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 110 drawn7 AVL
2025/26AVL1–2TOT2026-05-03
2025/26TOT1–2AVL2025-10-19
2024/25AVL2–0TOT2025-05-16
2024/25TOT4–1AVL2024-11-03
2023/24AVL0–4TOT2024-03-10
Spurs — projected scorers
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
TOT or draw65%
Draw or AVL64%
TOT or AVLno draw72%
Draw no bet
TOTstake returned on a draw51%
AVL50%
Clean sheets
TOT clean sheet25%
AVL clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOT↓ AVL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOT goals, columns AVL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
5 Sept, 20:11TOT 36.3% (−0.7 since first)draw 28.1%AVL 35.5%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.