Sunday 25 Oct, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Sunderland
38Index39Attack42Defense
LLLDW
37%LEE WIN
1–2
Likeliest LEE win · 9%
Leeds United
55Index51Attack58Defense
LDWDD
SUNDERLAND 35%DRAW 28%LEEDS 37%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 35% vs 37% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2025/26
SUN 11 drawn0 LEE
2025/26LEE0–1SUN2026-03-03
2025/26SUN1–1LEE2025-12-28
Sunderland — projected scorers
Leeds — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
SUN or draw63%
Draw or LEE65%
SUN or LEEno draw72%
Draw no bet
SUNstake returned on a draw48%
LEE52%
Clean sheets
SUN clean sheet24%
LEE clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SUN↓ LEE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SUN goals, columns LEE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-11) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.