Saturday 10 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Sunderland
41Index42Attack42Defense
LLDWL
43%BHA WIN
1–2
Likeliest BHA win · 9%
Brighton & Hove Albion
67Index67Attack63Defense
WWDLW
SUNDERLAND 31%DRAW 26%BRIGHTON 43%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.6
Why
- Brighton & Hove Albion attack index 67 meets Sunderland defense index 42 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 31% vs 43% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2025/26
SUN 01 drawn1 BHA
2025/26SUN0–1BHA2026-03-14
2025/26BHA0–0SUN2025-12-20
Sunderland — projected scorers
Brighton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
SUN or draw57%
Draw or BHA69%
SUN or BHAno draw74%
Draw no bet
SUNstake returned on a draw42%
BHA58%
Clean sheets
SUN clean sheet19%
BHA clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SUN↓ BHA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SUN goals, columns BHA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.