Saturday 12 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 5)
Sunderland
30Index23Attack46Defense
WLWWD
60%ARS WIN
0–1
Likeliest ARS win · 13%
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
WWWWW
SUNDERLAND 15%DRAW 25%ARSENAL 60%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
46%
Expected goals
0.8 · 1.8
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Sunderland defense index 46 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 15% vs 60% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2014/15
SUN 03 drawn5 ARS
2025/26ARS3–0SUN2026-02-07
2025/26SUN2–2ARS2025-11-08
2016/17ARS2–0SUN2017-05-16
2016/17SUN1–4ARS2016-10-29
2015/16SUN0–0ARS2016-04-24
Sunderland — projected scorers
Arsenal — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score46%
Double chance
SUN or draw40%
Draw or ARS85%
SUN or ARSno draw75%
Draw no bet
SUNstake returned on a draw20%
ARS80%
Clean sheets
SUN clean sheet17%
ARS clean sheet46%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SUN↓ ARS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SUN goals, columns ARS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 5 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24SUN 15.1% (+0.2 since first)draw 25.0%ARS 59.9%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.