Saturday 29 Aug, 16:15 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✗ missed — the win we priced at 27% · RPS 0.392
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Strasbourg
IndexAttackDefense
50% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Lens
IndexAttackDefense
STRASBOURG 27%DRAW 24%LENS 50%
FT 2–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.392). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
64%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.9
Strasbourg — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Lens — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.