Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✓ called — the win we priced at 43% · RPS 0.201
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Sassuolo
IndexAttackDefense
43% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Torino
IndexAttackDefense
SASSUOLO 43%DRAW 30%TORINO 28%
FT 2–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.201). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.2
Sassuolo — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Torino — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Sassuolo and Torino — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.