Monday 24 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–0✓ called — the win we priced at 57% · RPS 0.107
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Roma
IndexAttackDefense
57% WIN
1–0
Most likely score
Fiorentina
IndexAttackDefense
ROMA 57%DRAW 27%FIORENTINA 16%
FT 4–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.107). Graded 2026-08-25 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
50%
Expected goals
1.7 · 0.9
Roma — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Fiorentina — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Roma and Fiorentina — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.