Sunday 30 Aug, 16:15 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–2✓ called — the win we priced at 59% · RPS 0.100
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Rennes
IndexAttackDefense
59% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Le-Mans
IndexAttackDefense
RENNES 59%DRAW 22%LE-MANS 18%
FT 3–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.100). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.1
Rennes — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Le-Mans — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Le-Mans — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.