Saturday 29 Aug, 18:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✓ called — the win we priced at 53% · RPS 0.141
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Real-Sociedad
IndexAttackDefense
53% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Espanyol
IndexAttackDefense
REAL-SOCIEDAD 53%DRAW 24%ESPANYOL 24%
FT 2–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.141). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.2
Real-Sociedad — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Espanyol — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Real-Sociedad and Espanyol — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.