Sunday 30 Aug, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–0✓ called — the win we priced at 82% · RPS 0.017
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Real-Madrid
IndexAttackDefense
82% WIN
2–0
Most likely score
Malaga
IndexAttackDefense
REAL-MADRID 82%DRAW 12%MALAGA 6%
FT 4–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.017). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals
2.8 · 0.7
Real-Madrid — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Malaga — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Real-Madrid and Malaga — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.