Friday 21 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the win we priced at 58% · RPS 0.114
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Real-Betis

IndexAttackDefense
58% WIN
2–1
Most likely score

Real-Sociedad

IndexAttackDefense
REAL-BETIS 58%DRAW 21%REAL-SOCIEDAD 22%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.114). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.2
Real-Betis — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Real-Sociedad — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Real-Betis and Real-Sociedad — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.