Thursday 20 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 24% · RPS 0.155
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Rayo-Vallecano
IndexAttackDefense
49% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Alaves
IndexAttackDefense
RAYO-VALLECANO 49%DRAW 24%ALAVES 27%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.155). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.1
Rayo-Vallecano — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Alaves — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rayo-Vallecano and Alaves — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.