Saturday 22 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✗ missed — the win we priced at 33% · RPS 0.281
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Parma
IndexAttackDefense
34%DRAW
1–1
Most likely score
Cagliari
IndexAttackDefense
PARMA 33%DRAW 34%CAGLIARI 33%
FT 0–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.281). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals
1.1 · 1.1
Parma — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Cagliari — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Parma and Cagliari — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.