Sunday 30 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–0✓ called — the win we priced at 45% · RPS 0.196
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Paris-Fc
IndexAttackDefense
45% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Nice
IndexAttackDefense
PARIS-FC 45%DRAW 26%NICE 29%
FT 3–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.196). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.3
Paris-Fc — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Nice — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris-Fc and Nice — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.