Monday 24 Aug, 18:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 24% · RPS 0.165
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Osasuna
IndexAttackDefense
52% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Levante
IndexAttackDefense
OSASUNA 52%DRAW 24%LEVANTE 24%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.165). Graded 2026-08-25 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.2
Osasuna — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Levante — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Osasuna and Levante — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.