Sunday 18 Oct, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Nottingham Forest
43Index40Attack49Defense
LWDDL
54%ARS WIN
0–1
Likeliest ARS win · 11%
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
LWWWW
FOREST 20%DRAW 26%ARSENAL 54%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
52%
Expected goals
1.0 · 1.7
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Nottingham Forest defense index 49 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 20% vs 54% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
NOT 12 drawn5 ARS
2025/26NOT0–0ARS2026-01-17
2025/26ARS3–0NOT2025-09-13
2024/25NOT0–0ARS2025-02-26
2024/25ARS3–0NOT2024-11-23
2023/24NOT1–2ARS2024-01-30
Forest — projected scorers
Arsenal — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
NOT or draw46%
Draw or ARS80%
NOT or ARSno draw74%
Draw no bet
NOTstake returned on a draw27%
ARS73%
Clean sheets
NOT clean sheet18%
ARS clean sheet38%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NOT↓ ARS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NOT goals, columns ARS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-04) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.