Sunday 30 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–2✗ missed — the win we priced at 30% · RPS 0.316
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Napoli
IndexAttackDefense
37% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Como
IndexAttackDefense
NAPOLI 37%DRAW 33%COMO 30%
FT 1–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.316). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Both teams score
49%
Expected goals
1.2 · 1.1
Napoli — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Como — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Napoli and Como — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.