Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–3✓ called — the win we priced at 45% · RPS 0.176
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Monza
IndexAttackDefense
45% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Udinese
IndexAttackDefense
MONZA 23%DRAW 32%UDINESE 45%
FT 2–3 — the model called it (RPS 0.176). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
0.9 · 1.4
Monza — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Udinese — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monza and Udinese — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.