Sunday 30 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✓ called — the win we priced at 42% · RPS 0.224
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Monaco
IndexAttackDefense
42% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Marseille
IndexAttackDefense
MONACO 42%DRAW 23%MARSEILLE 34%
FT 2–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.224). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Both teams score
69%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.7
Monaco — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Marseille — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monaco and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.