Sunday 20 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester City
85Index83Attack75Defense
WWWLD
68%MCI WIN
2–0
Likeliest MCI win · 11%
Sunderland
35Index29Attack47Defense
DWLWW
MAN CITY 68%DRAW 20%SUNDERLAND 12%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
2.3 · 0.9
Why
- Manchester City attack index 83 meets Sunderland defense index 47 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 68% vs 12% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2014/15
MCI 71 drawn0 SUN
2025/26SUN0–0MCI2026-01-01
2025/26MCI3–0SUN2025-12-06
2016/17SUN0–2MCI2017-03-05
2016/17MCI2–1SUN2016-08-13
2015/16SUN0–1MCI2016-02-02
Man City — projected scorers
Sunderland — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
MCI or draw88%
Draw or SUN32%
MCI or SUNno draw80%
Draw no bet
MCIstake returned on a draw85%
SUN15%
Clean sheets
MCI clean sheet42%
SUN clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MCI↓ SUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MCI goals, columns SUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.