Saturday 17 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester City
84Index86Attack71Defense
WWWWW
77%MCI WIN
3–0
Likeliest MCI win · 8%
Ipswich Town
16Index32Attack6Defense
LWLLW
MAN CITY 77%DRAW 14%IPSWICH 9%
Over 2.5 goals
77%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
3.0 · 1.0
Why
- Manchester City attack index 86 meets Ipswich Town defense index 6 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- Manchester City average 2.4 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 77% vs 9% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
MCI 20 drawn0 IPS
2024/25IPS0–6MCI2025-01-19
2024/25MCI4–1IPS2024-08-24
Man City — projected scorers
Ipswich — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
MCI or draw91%
Draw or IPS23%
MCI or IPSno draw86%
Draw no bet
MCIstake returned on a draw90%
IPS10%
Clean sheets
MCI clean sheet37%
IPS clean sheet5%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MCI↓ IPS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MCI goals, columns IPS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-03) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.