Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the MCI win we priced at 82% · RPS 0.018
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Manchester City

87Index89Attack78Defense
WWWWW
82%MCI WIN
3–0
Most likely score

Coventry City

24Index15Attack37Defense
WWLLL
MAN CITY 82%DRAW 12%COVENTRY 6%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.018). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Both teams score
51%
Expected goals
3.0 · 0.8
Man City — projected scorers
Phil Foden24%44% ast—
Mathis Cherki22%38% ast—
Erling Haaland45%8% astGOAL
Antoine Semenyo22%23% astAST
Nico O'Reilly17%10% ast—
Marc Guehi12%9% ast—
Coventry — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.