Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 6)
Manchester City
87Index83Attack75Defense
WWLDW
82%MCI WIN
3–0
Likeliest MCI win · 11%
Coventry City
33Index3Attack73Defense
LL
MAN CITY 82%DRAW 13%COVENTRY 6%
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Both teams score
51%
Expected goals
3.0 · 0.8
Why
- Coventry City attack index 3 meets Manchester City defense index 75 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 82% vs 6% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Man City — projected scorers
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
MCI or draw94%
Draw or COV18%
MCI or COVno draw88%
Draw no bet
MCIstake returned on a draw93%
COV7%
Clean sheets
MCI clean sheet47%
COV clean sheet5%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MCI↓ COV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MCI goals, columns COV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 6 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24MCI 81.7% (+0.9 since first)draw 12.5%COV 5.8%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Coventry — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.