Saturday 31 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester City
87Index89Attack78Defense
WWWWW
51%MCI WIN
2–1
Likeliest MCI win · 10%
Brighton & Hove Albion
70Index67Attack69Defense
WWWDL
MAN CITY 51%DRAW 24%BRIGHTON 25%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.3
Why
- Manchester City attack index 89 meets Brighton & Hove Albion defense index 69 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- Manchester City average 2.4 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 51% vs 25% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2017/18
MCI 123 drawn3 BHA
2025/26MCI1–1BHA2026-01-07
2025/26BHA2–1MCI2025-08-31
2024/25MCI2–2BHA2025-03-15
2024/25BHA2–1MCI2024-11-09
2023/24BHA0–4MCI2024-04-25
Man City — projected scorers
Brighton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
MCI or draw75%
Draw or BHA49%
MCI or BHAno draw76%
Draw no bet
MCIstake returned on a draw68%
BHA33%
Clean sheets
MCI clean sheet27%
BHA clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MCI↓ BHA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MCI goals, columns BHA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.