Sunday 23 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✓ called — the MCI win we priced at 58% · RPS 0.109
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Manchester City

87Index83Attack75Defense
WWLDW
58%MCI WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Bournemouth

58Index63Attack48Defense
DLDDW
MAN CITY 58%DRAW 22%BOURNEMOUTH 20%
FT 2–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.109). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals
2.2 · 1.3
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
MCI 161 drawn1 BOU
2025/26BOU1–1MCI2026-05-19
2025/26MCI3–1BOU2025-11-02
2024/25MCI3–1BOU2025-05-20
2024/25BOU2–1MCI2024-11-02
2023/24BOU0–1MCI2024-02-24
Man City — projected scorers
Mathis Cherki19%35% astAST
Jéremy Doku14%30% ast—
Erling Haaland35%7% ast—
Phil Foden9%28% ast—
Antoine Semenyo22%14% ast—
Nico O'Reilly16%10% ast—
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Marcus Tavernier24%23% astGOAL
Eli Junior Kroupi28%6% ast—
Adrien Truffert10%21% ast—
Evanilson15%9% astAST
Rayan9%12% ast—
Alex Scott3%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.