Sunday 24 May, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–2✗ missed — the AVL win we priced at 16% · RPS 0.548
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Manchester City

82Index83Attack78Defense
LDWWD
63%MCI WIN
2–1
Most likely score

Aston Villa

56Index57Attack56Defense
WWDLL
MAN CITY 63%DRAW 21%ASTON VILLA 16%
FT 1–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.548). Graded 2026-08-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
2.2 · 1.1
Man City — projected scorers
Mathis Cherki17%35% ast—
Erling Haaland36%8% ast—
Jéremy Doku12%29% ast—
Nico O'Reilly22%11% ast—
Antoine Semenyo19%12% astGOAL
Bernardo Silva11%12% ast—
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Ollie Watkins31%10% astGOAL
Morgan Rogers14%15% ast—
John McGinn3%17% ast—
Ross Barkley9%8% astAST
Emiliano Buendía2%8% ast—
Ian Maatsen2%6% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.