Monday 24 Aug, 20:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 28% · RPS 0.137
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Malaga

IndexAttackDefense
45% WIN
1–0
Most likely score

Deportivo

IndexAttackDefense
MALAGA 45%DRAW 28%DEPORTIVO 26%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.137). Graded 2026-08-25 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
49%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.0
Malaga — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Deportivo — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Malaga and Deportivo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.