Saturday 29 Aug, 14:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 20% · RPS 0.214
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Mainz-05
IndexAttackDefense
63% WIN
2–1
Most likely score
Paderborn
IndexAttackDefense
MAINZ-05 63%DRAW 20%PADERBORN 17%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.214). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
2.3 · 1.1
Mainz-05 — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Paderborn — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Mainz-05 and Paderborn — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.