Saturday 29 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 23% · RPS 0.198
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Lyon
IndexAttackDefense
61% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Le-Havre
IndexAttackDefense
LYON 61%DRAW 23%LE-HAVRE 17%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.198). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
2.0 · 0.9
Lyon — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Le-Havre — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lyon and Le-Havre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.